The US Commerce Department reports that the third quarter 2011 GDP grew 2.0%.
On September 1st, the Congressional Budget Office estimated 3.1%.
The past four quarters stand at an average of 1.5%. The past 10 quarters stand at 2.1%, versus a post war average of 3.455%.
Some perspective: the past 10 quarters is essentially the rebound period after the deepest recession in post war history. That recession lasted six quarters, and averaged -3.4% per quarter.
The average rebound from a recession is north of 5% in the first year, and north of 4% the next. The 10-quarter period just completed is feeble even with a normal, shallow recession as the backstop. But 2.1% growth per quarter in this context is scary.
More persepctive: the past 40 quarters have averaged 1.6% growth.
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